The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the energy industry have been under control in the past weeks. At this stage, the economic research institutes have recalculated their economic forecasts. For Germany, the institutes now expect the economy to shrink almost entirely. The decline in GDP ranges from +0.1% (IWH, optimistic scenario) to -8.7% (IfW, pessimistic scenario). All institutes emphasize the existing uncertainties about the progression of the crisis over time.
Wholesaling electricity prices were already reacting clearly to the crisis, but the price drop came to a halt on Thursday, March 19, or a slight recovery. The annual future for deliveries in 2021 is currently (as of March 19, 2020) around 5 € / MWh lower than a week ago. The monthly future April – i.e. contracts currently traded for the delivery month of April 2020 – are markedly stronger declines by approx. 10 € / MWh compared to a week ago. For further information on the effects in the energy sector can be read in an briefing document here (in German only).